Follow the sharpest bettors on prediction markets
Discover sharp sports traders on Polymarket, choose who to follow, and forward-test every wallet from the moment you add it. Free during beta.
191K+
Scored bets
200+
Wallets discovered
+15.8%
Backtest ROI at 80+ threshold
Figures reflect historical backtest results on resolved Polymarket data using rolling wallet quality and no look-ahead scoring. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. See full methodology and disclaimers below.
You choose who to follow
We cast a broad net across 200+ wallets with notable sports track records on Polymarket. You browse their stats, pick the ones you trust, and build your own watchlist. Full control over which insiders you track.
Real-time signals
When a wallet you follow takes a new position on a pre-game sports market, you see it immediately with confidence score, bet sizing, and live market price.
Built-in forward testing
Every wallet gets timestamped when you add it. From that moment, all resolved positions are tracked as forward test results so you can see real, out-of-sample performance, not just backtested history.
Signal Feed
See what the sharps are buying
A live feed of insider positions across NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, ATP, and more. Each signal shows the confidence score, market type, selection, share price, bet size, conviction multiplier, and slippage, all at a glance.
Moneyline
Phoenix Suns
50.8¢Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns
Today • 10:10pm • NBA
346 shares
$175
Moneyline
Miami Heat
49.7¢Miami Heat Vs Toronto Raptors
Today • 7:40pm • NBA
81 shares
$40
Moneyline
Houston Rockets
51.7¢Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns
Today • 10:10pm • NBA
310 shares
$161
Moneyline
Sara Bejlek
51.7¢Sara Bejlek Vs Panna Udvardy
Tomorrow • 4:00am • WTA
71 shares
$37
Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks
17.4¢Dallas Mavericks Vs Los Angeles Clippers
Today • 9:40pm • NBA
181 shares
$32
Moneyline
Phoenix Suns
50.8¢Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns
Today • 10:10pm • NBA
346 shares
$175
Moneyline
Miami Heat
49.7¢Miami Heat Vs Toronto Raptors
Today • 7:40pm • NBA
81 shares
$40
Moneyline
Houston Rockets
51.7¢Houston Rockets Vs Phoenix Suns
Today • 10:10pm • NBA
310 shares
$161
Moneyline
Sara Bejlek
51.7¢Sara Bejlek Vs Panna Udvardy
Tomorrow • 4:00am • WTA
71 shares
$37
Moneyline
Dallas Mavericks
17.4¢Dallas Mavericks Vs Los Angeles Clippers
Today • 9:40pm • NBA
181 shares
$32
Bet Detail
Understand every signal
Click into any signal to see why it scored the way it did. Relative bet size, insider sports ROI, total trades, price history with annotated entry points, order book depth, and individual order fills.
Why this bet?
Conviction multiplier, absolute bet size, and slippage from entry, color-coded so you know if the edge is still there.
Insider stats
Sports-specific ROI, total ROI, and trade count. Enough context to judge the source, not just the signal.
Price chart & order book
Interactive price chart with the insider's entry annotated. Live order book showing bids, asks, spread, and last trade.
Order fills
Every buy and sell the insider made: timestamps, prices, and sizes. Full transparency into how the position was built.
80+ Sportsbooks
Cross-reference with real odds
Every insider signal is joined with live odds data from 80+ sportsbooks. See how the prediction market price compares to the traditional sports betting market and find the best price to act on.
Historical odds from every book
Full price history across all sportsbooks for the same market. See how lines have moved and where the value is right now.
Side-by-side comparison
Compare the prediction market price against traditional sportsbook odds in one view. Spot discrepancies and find the sharpest line.
Tre Johnson Player Points O/U 13.5
01The Core Thesis
Prediction markets can be inefficient. Some traders consistently outperform the market on sports. We surface them, you decide who to follow, and the tool tracks real performance from the moment you add them.
1. We cast a broad net
We continuously discover Polymarket wallets with notable sports betting activity — 200+ and growing. No pre-filtering, no curated shortlist. You see the full universe of candidates with their historical stats.
2. You choose who to follow
Browse wallet track records, ROI, sample sizes, and consistency. Add the ones you trust to your watchlist. Remove them anytime. You're in control of which insiders you track.
3. Get real-time signals
When a wallet you follow takes a new pre-game sports position, you see it immediately with the confidence score, bet sizing, and live market price.
4. Forward test automatically
Every wallet is timestamped when added. From that point, all new resolved positions are tracked as forward test results — real out-of-sample performance you can verify, not just historical stats.
02How We Evaluate Wallets
Anyone can get lucky over 10 bets. Over thousands of bets, luck averages out. We give you the stats to judge for yourself whether a wallet's track record is genuine, and the forward test to verify it going forward.
What you see
Every discovered wallet shows pregame ROI, sample size, consistency, win rate vs. implied probability, and sport-by-sport breakdowns. You can evaluate the full historical track record before deciding to follow.
On Polymarket, the price you pay is the implied probability. If you buy YES at 60c, the market thinks there's a 60% chance of YES. A wallet that consistently wins more than their entry prices predict is outperforming the market. We surface this data — comparing actual win rate against expected — so you can spot genuine edge, not just hot streaks.
The forward test
Historical stats tell you what did happen. The forward test tells you what happens next. When you add a wallet, we timestamp it. Every position resolved after that timestamp is tracked separately as a forward test result. This gives you a clean, out-of-sample record that the wallet can't retroactively inflate.
Why this matters
Past ROI alone doesn't prove edge. A hot streak can inflate returns. By separating historical performance from forward test results, you can independently verify whether a wallet's edge is real and ongoing — not just a backtest artifact.
Backtest methodology (reference)
Our original backtest used a z-test to identify wallets with statistically significant edge: we compared each wallet's actual win rate against what their entry prices predicted, then computed a z-score (standard deviations above chance). That analysis validated the concept across 190,953 scored bets. The live tool now takes a broader approach — giving you the raw stats and letting you decide who to follow, with the forward test as the real proof. Academic research on 292 million prediction market trades confirms sports markets tend to be well-calibrated, supporting the validity of this type of analysis.
03Confidence Scoring
Not all sharps are equal, and not all of their bets carry the same conviction. The confidence score captures both.
Wallet Quality
A composite of pregame ROI, sample size, consistency over the last 180 days, and pre-game market coverage. Better wallets produce higher scores.
Conviction
How much is the sharp risking relative to their normal bet? Measures true exposure (potential win), not just dollars wagered.
Slippage
How much has the price moved from the sharp's entry? Upward movement (edge eroding) penalizes the score. Price improvements boost it. Validated out-of-sample.
Why conviction matters
If a sharp's average bet is $1,000 and they drop $5,000 on a single market, that's a strong signal because they're sizing up. They have higher confidence in the outcome. A bet at or below their average tells you much less. We measure conviction as a multiple of the sharp's typical bet size, and the backtest showed it was a meaningful differentiator:
0-0.25×
+0.8%
backtest ROI
0.25-0.5×
+7.7%
backtest ROI
0.5-1×
+10%
backtest ROI
1-2×
+13%
backtest ROI
2-5×
+19%
backtest ROI
5×+
+31%
backtest ROI
04Copy-Trading Viability
Identifying sharp wallets is one question. Whether you can profitably copy them at a delay is a separate one because the market might fully price in their information before you can act. We tested this by simulating entry at the actual market price at various delays after each sharp's historical entry.
What this test answers: Given wallets with a proven edge, does enough of that edge survive in the market price 30 minutes, 6 hours, or even 24 hours later for a follower to profit? The table below uses rolling wallet statistics. Each bet is scored using only data the system would have known at the time, with no future information.
190,953
Scored bets (after 100-market warmup per wallet). 265K total resolved bets across the 72-wallet backtest cohort, including unredeemed losses.
Dynamic
Wallets are continuously discovered and qualified. No fixed list; no single wallet dominates the results.
+7.5%
All qualifying signals, buying at the market price 30 minutes after the sharp. With confidence filtering, much higher.
+7.1%
Even a full day later, the market hadn't fully absorbed the sharp's information in backtesting.
| Threshold | 1 min | 5 min | 15 min | 30 min | 6 hr | 12 hr | 24 hr | 36 hr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0 | 8.4%75K | 8.3%75K | 7.9%74K | 7.5%73K | 6.4%32K | 6.6%18K | 7.1%9K | 6.7%7K |
| ≥ 60 | 13.1%60K | 13.0%60K | 12.4%58K | 12.1%57K | 10.5%25K | 10.3%14K | 11.1%7K | 9.0%5K |
| ≥ 70 | 26.0%33K | 25.5%33K | 24.6%32K | 24.8%32K | 22.3%13K | 19.1%8K | 21.1%4K | 17.4%3K |
| ≥ 80 | 50.7%10K | 49.5%11K | 49.4%11K | 49.0%11K | 48.4%5K | 38.9%3K | 39.0%1.4K | 33.3%960 |
| ≥ 90 | 78.8%1.8K | 78.2%1.8K | 78.1%1.9K | 81.9%2.0K | 85.7%1.0K | 77.8%558 | 74.8%270 | 70.5%191 |
Rolling wallet quality. No future data used in scoring. Includes unredeemed losses. Bets scored only after 100+ prior resolved markets per wallet.
How to read this table: Pick a confidence threshold (row) and a detection delay (column). The ROI shows what a follower would have earned per dollar wagered by buying at the market price after that delay. For example, at threshold ≥ 80 with a 6-hour delay, the copy-trade would have returned 48.4% ROI across 5,000 bets. The key takeaway: historically, the market did not fully price in these wallets' information even hours later.
What this doesn't prove: This test assumes the tracked wallets maintain their historical edge going forward. Whether they do is a separate question that only the forward test (below) can answer. The backtest suggests that copy-trading was a viable approach for capturing edge historically, not that any specific wallet will continue to have edge.
05Forward Testing
Backtests tell you what would have happened. Forward testing tells you what actually happens. Every wallet you follow has its own forward test built in.
When you add a wallet to your watchlist, we record the exact timestamp. From that moment, every new position the wallet takes and every outcome that resolves is tracked as a forward test result, completely separate from historical stats. No cherry-picking, no hindsight filtering. You get a clean, verifiable record of how the wallet performs after you started watching.
Per wallet
Each wallet gets its own forward test from the moment you add it
Timestamped
Clear before/after boundary — historical stats vs. live results
Automatic
Every resolved position after the timestamp is tracked with no manual input
Why per-wallet forward testing matters
A wallet's historical ROI could reflect a hot streak that's already over. The forward test gives you an independent, out-of-sample track record that starts fresh when you do. If a wallet's forward test diverges from its historical stats, you'll see it and can remove them from your watchlist.
Forward test results depend on when you added each wallet and which positions resolved after that point. Your results will differ from other users who added the same wallet at a different time.
06Confidence Score Distribution
Here's how confidence scores are distributed across a typical batch of ~500 live signals.
Most signals land in the 60–79 range. Higher scores (80+) reflect strong wallets betting with conviction at favorable prices — these are the ones worth paying attention to first.