A common framing of +EV sports betting is that it isn't about picking more winners — it's about consistently looking for better prices over a large sample. The betting market includes two kinds of sportsbooks: "sharp" books that act as market makers, and "soft" books that cater to recreational players. Understanding this difference is foundational to the strategy. +EV betting is not risk free, individual bets can win or lose, and results are never guaranteed.

Sharp books, with Pinnacle being a prime example, operate on low margins and welcome large bets from research syndicates. They use this "sharp action" to refine their odds, and SmartStake trusts their lines as a benchmark for an event's estimated true probability. Soft books (like DraftKings or Bet365) have higher margins and manage their risk by limiting or banning successful bettors.

SmartStake's approach: SmartStake trusts the sharp Pinnacle line as a benchmark. By comparing Pinnacle's efficient odds to the slower, softer lines at recreational books, you can try to spot pricing differences and place bets with what may be a mathematical edge. This is called Positive Expected Value (+EV) betting. You should review any sharp book's record for yourself and pick the one you trust most.

Please note: Any examples in this guide are illustrative and based on the data shown at one point in time. They do not represent any individual user's results. +EV betting involves variance, requires placing trust in a sharp book, and outcomes are never guaranteed. Only use disposable income.

Why SmartStake Trusts Sharp Books

Choosing one sportsbook as a benchmark is a significant decision, so let's look at the public data behind it.

Researchers analyzed thousands of real golf matchups to see how well a bookmaker's odds correlated with real-world profits ¹. They grouped bets based on their expected profitability and then checked the actual results. Below is what the public data shows for Pinnacle and DraftKings.

In plain English: Look at the bottom row. When Pinnacle's odds suggested a group of bets had an expected profit of +4.5%, those bets actually returned +3.7% in the dataset. That is a strong correlation in the data analyzed.

Compare this to DraftKings' odds. When DraftKings suggested a group of bets had an expected profit of +5.6%, those bets actually lost 4.1% on average in the dataset. Compared to other books in the data, Pinnacle's odds were well-calibrated to actual outcomes.

A separate study by Football-Data.co.uk analyzed nearly 88,000 betting odds. It found a close correlation between the expected profit (calculated from Pinnacle's final closing odds) and the actual profit bettors achieved in the dataset ².

What this means: The public studies cited above point to the same conclusion: based on this research, SmartStake trusts Pinnacle's closing line as a benchmark for an event's estimated true probability. The studies suggest giving significant weight to Pinnacle's odds when building a predictive model ¹. Past performance in research datasets does not guarantee future results. You should review the public data and pick the sharp book you trust most.

Estimating the True Price

Now that SmartStake has explained why it trusts Pinnacle's odds as a benchmark, how do you use them to look for potentially profitable bets? First, you have to understand and remove the bookmaker's built-in margin, known as the "vig" or "juice." This process is called "de-vigging."

Think of it this way: when a bookmaker offers odds, they're not just telling you the fair price — they're marking it up like a store selling products. Here's what's happening:

1. Implied Probability: To calculate the implied probability from decimal odds, use the formula: Implied Probability (%) = 1 divided by the odds. For example, if the odds are 2.00, the implied probability is 1 divided by 2.00, which equals 0.5, or 50%. This means the bookmaker is suggesting there's a 50% chance of that outcome happening.

2. The Markup Problem: If you add up all the implied probabilities from a bookmaker's odds, they always total more than 100%. This extra percentage is their profit margin (the "vig").

3. Estimating the True Price: To remove the markup, you divide each team's probability by the total. If Lakers are 47% and Warriors are 54% (totaling 101%), the estimated true probabilities are: Lakers 47÷101 = 46.5%, Warriors 54÷101 = 53.5%. Now they add up to 100%.

4. The Opportunity: Once you have an estimate of the fair odds, you can shop around at other bookmakers. If you find one offering better odds than the estimated fair price, you have found a potential +EV bet — though the bet itself can still win or lose.

A Worked Example

Let’s walk through a simple example with a Lakers vs Warriors game:

Let's say we get offered the following odds from a sharp bookmaker: Lakers to win at 2.10 (+110), Warriors to win at 1.75 (-133). (Note: feel free to switch these to American odds using the interactive calculator below.)

Convert to implied probabilities:

• Lakers: 1 ÷ 2.10 = 47.62%
• Warriors: 1 ÷ 1.75 = 57.14%

Total implied probability = 104.76% (≈ 4.76% vig)

Remove the vig (de-vigging):

• Lakers: 47.62 ÷ 104.76 = 45.48%
• Warriors: 57.14 ÷ 104.76 = 54.52%

Total = 100%

Fair odds (true price):

• Lakers: 1 ÷ 0.4548 = 2.20
• Warriors: 1 ÷ 0.5452 = 1.83

These fair odds represent the true probability of each outcome without any bookmaker margin. Now you can shop around at other sportsbooks — any line better than 2.20 on the Lakers or better than 1.83 on the Warriors is a +EV opportunity.

Spotting a +EV Line

In the opening example, Pinnacle offers:

• Lakers to win at 2.04
• Warriors to win at 1.82

After de-vigging, these become the estimated true odds:

Next, you shop these estimated true odds at other sportsbooks to find any +EV lines. Here is a hypothetical snapshot:

SmartStake calculates EV per unit stake using:

where p is the estimated true win probability (eg. 0.4716 for the Lakers) and o is the odds offered by the sportsbook.

Any line above the estimated true odds is a candidate +EV opportunity — though individual bets can still lose. In this hypothetical snapshot, FanDuel offers an estimated edge on the Lakers at +2.81% EV, while BetMGM offers an estimated edge on the Warriors at +1.47% EV. Here is an interactive example where you can change the Pinnacle odds and see the EV at other books, or change the odds at other books and see the resulting EV.

Modeling Expected Returns

Now that the theory is covered, here is how to model possible long-run returns: what does the math suggest about +EV betting outcomes?

The answer depends on three key factors: your bet size, how often +EV opportunities appear in your market, and your estimated edge size. The example below uses the hypothetical BetMGM Lakers line with +9.1% EV. This is a theoretical illustration only and not a prediction of your results — individual bets can win or lose, and you can lose your bankroll.

The De-Vigging Calculator

Want to find out if a bet is +EV? Use our free De-Vigging Calculator. Just enter both sides of a 2-outcome bet and it will calculate the true odds of each outcome. Then, just compare the true odds to the odds at other sportsbooks to see if you can find a +EV opportunity. If the odds from the other sportsbook are higher than the true odds, you've found a +EV opportunity.

Finding +EV in Practice

This sounds great, but you might be wondering: are these numbers just theoretical? How often do sportsbooks really have odds that are different enough to matter?

The truth is, significant discrepancies between sharp and soft books appear daily. However, these opportunities are fleeting. The betting market is an ecosystem. When a soft book posts a line with a high EV, sharp bettors and syndicates quickly place large wagers on it. This influx of money signals to the bookmaker that their line is off-market. In response, they rapidly adjust the odds to reduce their liability, and the +EV opportunity vanishes — often in minutes or even seconds.

So, while these profitable bets are real, they aren't always easy to find manually. Speed is everything.

Automating the Search

Manually comparing dozens of sportsbooks across hundreds of games is a monumental task. By the time you find an edge, it might already be gone. That’s why we built a tool that does the hard work for you.

Our platform scrapes over 80 sportsbooks in real-time, 24/7. We de-vig the Pinnacle line and compare it against every other book to surface +EV opportunities the second they appear. Instead of manually comparing lines, you get a live feed of +EV bets delivered directly to you.

The game is about finding value, and value is a perishable commodity. Our tools help you identify +EV opportunities quickly. Plus, we have bet tracking and many more tools to help you manage your strategy. Results vary and are never guaranteed — +EV betting is a long-term approach that requires discipline and bankroll management.

Start Your Free Trial Today and See the Live +EV Opportunities for Yourself.

Want to learn more about how to use our tool? Check out our How to Use SmartStake's Positive EV Tool guide.

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