Closing line value (CLV)
How SmartStake scores the price you took against the closing line on your settled bets — where CLV appears, how to read the average and the beat/match/miss split, and when a bet reads "—".
What closing line value is
Closing line value (CLV) measures how the odds you took compare to the closing line — the market's price right before the game starts. SmartStake expresses it as an expected-value percentage against the no-vig fair closing odds: a positive number means the price you got beat the close, a negative one means the market moved past you.
CLV is worth tracking because it is a leading indicator. Whether a bet won or lost is noisy — a good bet loses all the time — and it can take a very large sample before results tell you whether an edge is real. CLV settles down far faster, so a run of positive CLV is an early read that your prices are sharp, well before your profit line confirms it. It is independent of the outcome: a bet can win and still be negative CLV, or lose and be positive.
For the concept itself, see the betting glossary and line history, which shows the market movement CLV is measured against.
How SmartStake measures it
When a tracked bet settles, SmartStake compares the odds you took to the fair closing price for that market, using the same no-vig fair-value math that powers Positive EV and win probability — the sportsbook margin is stripped from the sharp-book consensus at kickoff, and your price is scored against that fair number. The result is stored on the bet, so it appears shortly after the bet grades and does not change afterward.
Because it is anchored to the price at the close, CLV is only scored once a bet has settled, and only for bets placed before the game started.
Where you see it
CLV shows up in four places across the Bet Tracker:
- On every settled bet row. Bets in the Bet Tracker list and the Performance feed carry their CLV inline next to the odds (for example
+0.7% CLV). A parlay shows one combined figure once every leg has a score; a settled bet with no captured close reads— CLV; pending bets show nothing until they settle. - On each settled bet. Open any settled bet from the Bet overview or the Performance feed and its detail view shows that bet's CLV — the expected-value percentage alongside the odds you took and the closing odds, so you can see the gap directly. See following a live bet.
- In the CLV summary card. A compact card on the home dashboard and on the Bet overview's yesterday view summarizes CLV over a period: your average CLV, the split of bets that beat, matched, or missed the close, and a gauge showing the share that beat it.
- On the Performance page. The Performance page has a Closing line value section — the same summary, scoped to the page's date range and filters, so you can read CLV for just your arbitrage bets, a single book, or the last month. Its Advanced tab turns CLV into diagnosis: a profit margin comparison, edge significance (is your edge statistically real yet), a variance cone, calibration, and breakdowns of your edge by market, odds, timing, and lead time.
Reading the summary
The summary card reports three things:
- Average CLV — your mean expected value against the close across every covered bet in the period, shown as a signed percentage (for example
+2.1%). Positive is beating the close on average. - The beat / match / miss split — the share of covered bets that landed above, at, or below the close. A bet within a narrow band around even counts as a match rather than a beat or a miss.
- Share beating the close — the gauge reading: the percentage of covered bets with positive CLV. Consistently clearing half is the number sharp bettors watch.
Parlays are counted one leg at a time in the aggregate, because each leg's price stands on its own.
When a bet reads "—"
CLV needs a captured closing line for the exact market you bet, so some bets will not have a number. A bet reads "—" — never zero, never an error — when:
- its league isn't tracked for closing lines yet (currently the US majors and the World Cup);
- it was placed after the game started (a live bet has no pre-game close to score against); or
- the market simply wasn't captured in time.
The summary and the profit margin comparison both tell you how much of your record they cover with a "Based on X of Y bets" caption, so partial coverage is always visible rather than silently folded in.
Coverage grows over time
Only bets in tracked leagues, placed before kickoff, get a CLV score. As coverage expands, more of your history will fill in — but bets whose closing market was never captured stay "—" and are left out of the averages rather than counted as break-even.
Related pages
- Performance charts — the profit chart, the profit margin comparison, and the CLV summary in one place.
- Following a live bet — the per-bet detail view where each settled bet's CLV appears.
- Line history — watch the market move toward the close CLV is scored against.
- Betting glossary — plain-English definitions of closing line, steam, and CLV.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Using a “sharp” book as a fair-value reference is a modeling choice, not a statement of accuracy. Review a book’s record yourself and anchor on the books you trust.
- Any numbers, screenshots, and worked examples shown are illustrative only. They are not representative of typical results and your results may differ.