Bankroll, Kelly & stake sizing
How to set your bankroll, Kelly multiplier, and flat stake percentage so SmartStake can suggest a wager size on each bet based on your settings.
How stake suggestions work
SmartStake does not place bets for you, but most tools surface a suggested wager amount alongside each opportunity. That number is not a fixed rule — it is a calculation driven by three preferences you control: your bankroll, your Kelly multiplier, and (on the Smart Money tool) a flat stake percentage. Getting these right means every suggested stake reflects your actual situation rather than a generic placeholder.
The three preferences
Bankroll
Your bankroll is the total dollar amount you have set aside for betting. Enter the number in the Bankroll field found in the toolbar of any tool that shows stake suggestions (Positive EV, Insiders, Smart Money) or in the Preferences panel on your profile page. The value is saved to your account and shared across all tools.
Every suggested stake is a fraction of this number, so it scales proportionally. If you double your bankroll entry, suggested stakes double. Keep the number current as your actual balance changes.
Kelly multiplier (fractional Kelly)
The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that identifies what fraction of your bankroll to wager given a bet's estimated edge and odds. Full Kelly is the fraction that, under its assumptions, maximizes the theoretical long-run growth rate of a bankroll — but it produces large, volatile swings in practice, so most bettors use a fraction of it.
The Kelly Multiplier preference — labeled "Kelly Multiplier" in the Positive EV toolbar and the bet detail calculator — is that fraction. A value of 0.25 means 25% of full Kelly (quarter-Kelly), which is a common conservative starting point. The field accepts any value from 0 to 1. The default in the app is 0.25.
The resulting suggested wager is:
Suggested stake = bankroll × Kelly fraction × Kelly multiplier
The Kelly fraction itself is derived from the bet's estimated true probability and the available odds. For the math behind this, see Kelly criterion & staking.
Start conservative
Quarter-Kelly (0.25) is a reasonable default for most recreational bettors. Full Kelly (1.0) assumes your edge estimate is perfectly accurate, which is rarely the case in practice. A lower multiplier reduces variance and is more forgiving of estimation error.
Flat stake percentage (Smart Money)
The Smart Money tool does not use the Kelly formula to size bets, because the signal there is not derived from a calculated EV percentage. Instead it uses a Stake Percentage preference — labeled "Stake Percentage" in the Smart Money toolbar — which is a flat percentage of your bankroll.
Suggested stake = bankroll × (stake percentage / 100)
For example, a $5,000 bankroll with a 1% stake percentage produces a $50 suggested stake. The default is 1%. Adjust it in the Smart Money toolbar alongside your bankroll. Changes to the flat stake percentage do not affect the Kelly multiplier used elsewhere, and vice versa.
Where to edit these settings
The bankroll and Kelly multiplier can be edited in two places:
- Per-tool toolbar — the settings bar at the top of the Positive EV, Insiders, and Smart Money tools shows the current values and lets you save changes inline. The Positive EV toolbar shows "Bankroll | Kelly"; the Smart Money toolbar shows "Bankroll | Stake %".
- Profile preferences — the Preferences panel on your profile page lets you update your bankroll and linked sportsbooks. Changes save immediately and sync across tools.
Both paths write to the same stored preferences, so a change in either location takes effect everywhere.
How the suggested stake flows through each tool
On the Positive EV tool, each bet row and bet detail modal displays a recommended wager based on bankroll × Kelly fraction × Kelly multiplier. When you open the detail to add a bet to your tracker, the stake field is pre-filled with this amount. You can override it before saving.
On the Insiders tool, the recommended stake is computed the same way — Kelly fraction × bankroll × Kelly multiplier — applied to the Insiders pick's estimated edge and odds.
On the Smart Money tool, the pre-filled stake uses the flat stake percentage instead of Kelly.
The Parlay Builder in Positive EV also calculates a recommended parlay bet size, applying the Kelly formula to the combined true probability and combined odds of the legs you have added to the slip.
The bet tracker records what you actually wagered
The suggested stake is a starting point. Whatever amount you confirm when adding a bet is what gets recorded in the tracker and used in your profit and ROI calculations. See promo bonuses for how bonus winnings count toward your profit at no stake at risk.
Related pages
- Kelly criterion & staking — the math behind the formula and why fractional Kelly is standard practice
- Promo bonuses — how promo winnings count toward your bankroll and profit
- Smart Money filters — filtering the Smart Money feed by liquidity, exchange, and other signals
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.