What Insiders is
Insiders tracks qualified sharp wallets on Polymarket and Kalshi and surfaces their positions as picks, so you can see what well-documented bettors are backing before a game.
What Insiders does
Insiders is a feed of picks drawn from the on-chain activity of qualified wallets on Polymarket and Kalshi. When a wallet the system has vetted takes a position on a sports market, that position surfaces in the Insiders feed as a pick you can review and, if you choose, take into your own bet tracker.
Unlike the Positive EV or Arbitrage tools, which are anchored to a mathematical edge calculation, Insiders is anchored to documented human behaviour — specifically, to wallets that have traded broadly across sports prediction markets and come out ahead on the directional bets only. The underlying thesis is that a bettor whose past directional trades have shown a positive return over a large sample, based on public on-chain data, without relying on arbitrage, is worth following.
The qualification bar
Not every wallet that appears on Polymarket's sports leaderboard makes it into the Insiders feed. The SmartStake backend runs a daily audit against each candidate's full on-chain position history and admits only wallets that clear four hard thresholds:
- ≥ 200 sports markets traded — the wallet must have taken positions across at least 200 distinct sports markets. This filters out bettors with a short or narrow history, ensuring any ROI figure is drawn from a meaningful sample.
- Directional ROI ≥ 1% — the wallet's return on investment must be at least 1% when measured on directional bets only. Arbitrage positions are excluded from this calculation, so the ROI reflects a positive directional return rather than hedged arbitrage positions.
- Arb ratio ≤ 50% — at most half of the wallet's sports markets may be classified as arbs. A wallet that mainly takes both sides of a market to hedge (arbitrage) is not making predictions; the arb-ratio ceiling ensures the qualified pool consists of wallets actually taking a view.
- Active in the last 30 days — wallets that have gone quiet are excluded, so the feed reflects bettors who are still participating in current markets.
A wallet also cannot have its largest single winning position represent more than 25% of its total realised profit — a filter against lucky outliers whose track record rests on one exceptional bet.
Directional positions only
The ROI figure used in qualification — and shown in the Wallets view — covers directional sports positions only. Arb positions are tracked separately and excluded. This is intentional: the Insiders feed only surfaces picks where a wallet is actually picking a side.
Why this is a differentiator
Most copy-trading or signal services rely on self-reported records or proprietary internal metrics. Insiders draws from public on-chain data and applies a qualification filter that is specific about what constitutes genuine edge — a broad market history, a positive directional return, and a low proportion of arb activity. The bar is not set by how much money a wallet has made in absolute terms, but by the quality and breadth of its betting record.
Backtest and forward test
Each qualified wallet carries two performance windows. The backtest covers the wallet's history before it was admitted to the system — the data the qualification decision was based on. The forward test tracks how that wallet's signals have performed since admission, on out-of-sample positions settled after the wallet entered the feed.
A backtest conducted at a confidence threshold of 90 with a one-minute delay showed 47% ROI. That is a historical finding, not a guarantee of future returns. Individual wallets vary, market conditions change, and any results you see should be read as context, not a prediction.
How the feed is organised
The main Insiders view shows picks — individual positions from qualified wallets. A separate Wallets view lets you browse the qualified wallets themselves, sorted by their forward-test performance. For detail on how picks are ranked and what the confidence score means, see Picks and confidence. For how to read and compare individual wallets, see Wallets and leaderboard. For the order-book data attached to each pick, see Order book.
- Odds, prices, expected value, conversion rates, and profit figures shown are estimates based on the last data we retrieved. They can change at any time — confirm the current price at the book before you bet, as odds may move and entry errors can occur.
- Any numbers, screenshots, and worked examples shown are illustrative only. They are not representative of typical results and your results may differ.