Performance: profit, CLV & calendar

Reading your performance at a glance

The Performance page is the reporting surface of the Bet Tracker. The profit chart sits at the top, followed by an Edit and tag bets shortcut into the Bet Tracker (where adding, fixing, and tagging happens — see Adding and editing bets), a Closing line value summary, and then two tabs — Bets and Advanced — that split the everyday feed from the deeper edge analytics. Shared filter controls sit alongside. Narrowing to a sportsbook, league, market, tool, or tag — or changing the date range — updates everything on screen at once, both tabs included. The question mark beside a section title opens a short explanation of what that section measures.

Everything here reflects settled results.

Headline metrics and the date range

On desktop a chip row below the profit chart selects the time window: 1D, 1W, 1M (the default), 3M, 6M, YTD, 1Y, ALL, or a custom range picked on a calendar. On smaller screens the same choices live in a Timeframe button at the start of the filter row — tap it to pick a window from a menu, or choose Custom range to set exact dates on a calendar. Above the chart, three headline numbers summarize the window:

• Profit — total net profit in dollars across all settled wagers, coloured green or red by sign.
• ROI — total net profit divided by total stake at risk. Free-bet wagers (including promo bonuses) carry no stake at risk, so they raise profit without inflating the denominator. When ROI is unavailable — for example, if nothing has been graded yet — it is not shown.
• Record — your win-loss-push count over the window. Voided and cashed-out wagers are excluded.

The profit chart

Your cumulative profit over the selected window as a continuous line — every settled wager, promo bonuses included, because they all affect your real bankroll. A dotted zero line with a "$0.00" pill marks break-even. Dragging across the chart scrubs a crosshair along the line; while you scrub, the headline Profit, ROI, and Record update in place to their running values as of the highlighted date (shown at the right of the headline row), and snap back to the full window when you let go. The readout snaps to the nearest charted day, week, or month — values are never interpolated between points. The x-axis buckets by day, week, or month automatically based on the window length; days with nothing settled carry the line flat.

Closing line value

The closing line value summary sits directly below the profit chart, scoped to the page's date range and filters: your average expected value against the closing line, the split of bets that beat, missed, or matched the close, and a gauge with the share beating the close. Consistently beating the close is one of the strongest early signals of long-term profitability — it stabilizes far faster than profit does. Parlays count once per leg here, since each leg's price stands on its own. A "Based on X of Y settled bets" caption tells you how much of your record has a captured closing line. For the full picture of how CLV is measured and everywhere it appears, see Closing line value.

Filters

On desktop a sidebar filters by Sportsbook, Leagues, Markets, Tool, and Tags; on smaller screens the same filters live in a chip row that opens each picker in a sheet. The Markets filter is the same sport → market type → market drill-down used in the betting tools, so you can scope the page to, say, player props only. Filters and the date range apply simultaneously to the metrics, both tabs, and the feed — so you can, for example, scope everything to your arbitrage wagers at a single book over the past month.

The Bets tab

The Bets tab lists every settled wager in reverse chronological order, grouped by calendar day. Each day header shows the date and that day's net profit. Wager cards show the sportsbook, the bet name and type (for example "3-Leg Parlay · 2W-1L"), the final score where available, that bet's CLV inline next to the odds, and the net profit or loss. Tapping a card opens the full detail view — event, market, odds, stake, each leg's result, and the bet's closing-line value. Promo bonuses appear as free-bet wagers tagged bonus. The feed loads more automatically as you scroll. For export options, see Exporting your bets.

The Advanced tab

The Advanced tab is where closing line value turns into diagnosis. Every chart here reads the same filtered, settled bets as the rest of the page, and every one is built on the closing line rather than on profit — so it stabilizes on tens of bets instead of the thousands profit would need. Each chart only draws once it has enough covered bets to mean something; until then it shows a short "not enough data" note rather than a misleading line. The question mark beside each title opens the same explanation summarized below.

Profit margin comparison

A comparison of your realized profit against what the closing line said those same bets were worth: the solid line is actual profit, the dashed line is expected profit at closing prices. A gap where the dashed line runs above the solid one means you are getting good prices but running below expectation — bad luck, not bad picks; the reverse means results have outrun the underlying edge. Scrubbing works the same way as on the profit chart, updating the Actual and Closing line totals above the chart.

Both lines cover only the bets with a captured closing line, so this chart's actual-profit line can differ from the top profit chart. The caption below the chart — "Based on X of Y settled bets" — tells you exactly how much of your record it reflects. Bets in untracked leagues or placed after kickoff have no closing line and are left out of both lines.

Edge significance

Profit alone can't prove skill — results are far too noisy over any realistic sample. Closing line value is roughly ten times less noisy, so it can prove an edge in tens of bets instead of thousands. This section turns that into a straight answer on whether your edge is real yet:

• Beat the close — the share of your covered legs that landed above the closing line.
• Avg CLV — your mean expected value against the close.
• Stake-weighted CLV — the same average re-weighted by bet size. If it sits below your plain average, your biggest bets are carrying your weakest edges.
• Confidence — the statistical probability that your positive average CLV is real skill rather than luck. When you clear 95%, the section says so; until then, a progress bar shows how many bets you have of the roughly N needed to get there at your current edge. If your average CLV is not above zero, there is no positive edge to prove yet and the section says that instead.

A footnote reports how many of your settled legs were covered.

Variance cone

We replay your exact bets 500 times, each run letting every bet win or lose at the probability implied by its closing line. The shaded band holds 90% of those simulated bankroll paths, the dashed line is the expected path, and the solid line is your actual result.

If your actual line sits inside the band, your results — good or bad — are within normal variance for your edge and volume: a downswing inside the band is not a broken strategy, and a heater above it is not a bigger edge. The luck percentile places your result among the simulations — 50% is dead-on expectation, higher means you have run good. It needs at least ten covered bets to simulate, and uses your most recent covered bets when the window is large.

Calibration

Every bet carries a win probability implied by its closing line. This chart groups your graded bets into bins by that probability and plots how often each bin actually won (solid line) against what the market implied (dashed line).

When the solid line tracks the dashed one, the probabilities behind your bets are honest, so the expected-value math built on them can be trusted. A solid line sitting below the dashed one means those probabilities were overconfident. The Brier score summarizes it in one number — the average squared error between predicted probability and outcome, where lower is better. It needs at least thirty graded bets with closing-line data.

Edge by market and odds

A heatmap of your average CLV for each market, split by the odds range the bet was taken at. Green cells are where you beat the close, red cells are where the market beat you, and each cell shows its bet count beneath the number. Read it with those counts — a strong edge on a large cell is a strategy, a strong edge on six bets is noise. It shows your highest-volume markets, and only cells with enough bets to be worth reading. Use it to concentrate volume where the green is deep and well fed.

Edge decay

For each market, your bets in the window are split into an earlier and a later half by date, and the average CLV of each half is shown as a pair of bars. A later half that keeps coming in lower means the market is getting efficient or your approach is going stale — a signal that shows up in CLV long before profit confirms it. Retiring a decaying strategy early is one of the highest-value moves a sharp bettor makes. It shows your highest-volume markets with enough bets in each to compare.

Edge by lead time

Your average CLV bucketed by how far before the event start you placed the bet. It answers whether your edge comes from betting early, before the market sharpens, or from finding value close to start. If your edge lives in one window, that is when your process should be running.

The profit calendar

The daily profit calendar lives on the dashboard: a calendar icon in the corner of the home page's profit graph opens it. It shows one month at a time, with navigation arrows to move between months.

Each day cell with settled results displays that day's net profit or loss — green for positive, red for negative; days with nothing settled show only the day number. Amounts are formatted compactly (a $1,250 day shows as $1.3k), and the header shows the month's total.